Orlando Pride host Portland Thorns on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 20:00 UTC, in a fixture our model fancies the away side in. That is the headline: despite playing on the road, Portland Thorns carry the model’s nod, with the best away win price currently sitting at 3.00. Pride fans may need a second read, but the numbers back the Thorns this week.
Both sides have odds live for this one, which tells you the market sees a genuine contest rather than a formality. Below we break down the form picture, the model’s probabilities, and where the value might sit before you commit to a pick.
Orlando Pride
v
Portland Thorns
Form and context
Recent form is the story here. Orlando Pride come into this one at home, where the home crowd will expect a response, but our model’s form read leans Thorns, which is why Portland carry the pick despite the trip east.
Portland Thorns, meanwhile, arrive with the model’s backing as the away side. Road wins in this league are never cheap, yet the model rates Portland’s chances highly enough to make them the pick, with 3.00 the best away price available right now.
Orlando Pride
LDWDWLLWLLWWLWLLWLLLWLWD 47% 8–7 Portland Thorns
WWLWDWWWLDWLDWLLDLWWWDLD 53% 6–5 For the wider picture in the NWSL this season, the table and the scoring charts tell you who is setting the pace:
NJ/NY Gotham FC
24
+11
48
WLDDW
Washington Spirit
24
+10
43
LWWLD
Utah Royals
24
+11
42
WLWLW
San Diego Wave
24
+7
42
WLWWD
North Carolina Courage
24
+12
39
LWLWW
Portland Thorns
24
+5
39
DLDWW
Our model’s prediction
Our model’s read on Orlando Pride vs Portland Thorns points to an away win. The Thorns are the pick, and the best price on that outcome at the time of writing is 3.00. In plain terms, the model sees Portland as the likelier side to take all three points, even though Orlando have home advantage on the night.
That is a call worth taking seriously, not one to treat as a certainty. Away wins are among the harder outcomes to land in this league, and a model pick at 3.00 reflects that difficulty rather than hiding it. If you back the Thorns, you are backing the model’s judgement against the home crowd.
Odds and value
The headline number here is the away win. Portland Thorns are best priced at 3.00 on the away win market across our odds feed at the time of writing. Against that, Orlando Pride’s home win and the draw complete the 1X2 picture, and the model’s lean towards Portland at that price is where the value conversation starts and finishes.
Our advice mirrors the model: the away win at 3.00 is the pick, and anything shorter than that price would weaken the case. Odds move through the week, so the price you see at kickoff may differ from the one quoted here.
Orlando Pride vs Portland Thorns: our pick
Our pick is Portland Thorns to win at 3.00. The model names the Thorns as the likelier winner of this fixture, and at that price the away win carries enough reward to justify the risk the model is asking you to take. If you prefer a safer angle, the draw and home win prices offer alternatives, but the model’s call is clear.
Track record
Our tracked record shows 543 settled tips with 277 wins at a 51% strike rate, returning 25.55 units of profit at a 4.7% ROI. Recent form has been strong, with eight wins in the last ten settled picks. We state the numbers as they stand, wins and losses both included.
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