Levski Sofia vs Universitatea Craiova: kickoff and stakes
Levski Sofia host Universitatea Craiova at the Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia on July 22, 2026, kicking off at 17:30 UTC in the Champions League’s second qualifying round. Both clubs arrive unbeaten through their opening ties, and the sample so far shows almost identical numbers on each side of the draw.
Neither side has lost in its last two outings, both have scored five goals and conceded just one, and both kept a clean sheet along the way. That symmetry is exactly why our model can’t separate this one cleanly, and it leans toward a hedge rather than a straight winner.
Form and context
Levski arrive on a “DW” run, a draw followed by a win, for a 67% last-five form reading. Craiova’s log shows back-to-back wins, “WW”, for a perfect 100% in that same window. Both teams have scored 2.5 goals per game on average across their last two matches and conceded 0.5, and each has posted one clean sheet. Levski have rotated between a 4-3-3 and a 4-4-2, while Craiova have stuck with the same 3-4-3 shape in both matches, suggesting a settled system heading into Sofia.
The model’s read
Our model gives Levski Sofia a 35% chance of winning outright, with the draw also priced at 35% and Craiova at 30%. Its formal advice is a double chance on Levski Sofia or the draw, effectively backing the 70% combined slice rather than picking a single outcome in a match this close. On its underlying comparison metrics, Craiova edge the recent-form read (60 to Levski’s 40), but the model rates both sides level on attack and defence (50-50 apiece), and its overall composite score has the visitors only slightly ahead, 53.3 to 46.7.
Levski Sofia
v
Universitatea Craiova
Odds and value
Levski Sofia are the market’s outright favourites for this leg, though the gap to Craiova is not wide, reflecting the same tight picture our model describes. With the sides so close on paper, the double chance line the model recommends looks like the more sensible way to engage with this fixture than betting on a clean home or away win. Odds move between now and kickoff, so check the live price before placing anything.
Our prediction
We’re siding with the model here: Levski Sofia or the draw is the pick, built on the 70% combined probability across those two outcomes and the tight underlying numbers between two unbeaten sides. A clear-cut home or away win looks like the bigger risk in a tie this evenly matched.
Track record
Our tips have gone 51-31 across 82 settled picks this season, a 62.2% win rate, with 5 still open. That has produced a real profit of 7.46 units at a 9.1% ROI, a solid return rather than a spectacular one, and every pick still carries its own risk regardless of the history behind it.
Prices shift fast in the run-up to a European qualifier, so treat any number you see here as a snapshot rather than a guarantee it will still be on offer at kickoff.
Betting should be fun, never a way to make money. Only stake what you can afford to lose, set deposit and time limits, and never chase losses. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free confidential help is available.
