The WSL season is already over a quarter complete, and here SheKicks analyses which teams and players are the biggest overachievers – and which are underperforming – when it comes to scoring goals relative to their xG (expected goals).
Manchester United are the biggest xG overachievers in the WSL
It is no surprise that Manchester United are still unbeaten in the WSL when you look at how many goals they have scored compared to what is expected.
Expected goals (xG) is a metric that assigns a probability to an attempt being scored based on historical data.
Factors such as shot distance, angle, body part, and whether it was a ‘big chance’ or not contribute towards the calculation.
Manchester United are the biggest overachievers in the WSL when it comes to the best difference between goals scored and xG.
Marc Skinner’s side are the second top scorers in the league with 16 goals, but their xG is only 10.9 – a difference of 5.1. Jess Park, who recently won the WSL Player of the Month for October, and Melvine Malard are among their players who have scored more goals than expected.
United’s 5.1 difference compares to rivals Manchester City and Arsenal, who are overachieving by 1.7 and 1.5 goals, respectively, relative to the number of goals they have scored.
The second-best overachievers are Everton, who have scored seven goals compared to their xG of 4.3. Those extra goals might prove important for Everton by the end of the season, as they currently sit 10th in the WSL standings with just four points from six games.
Tottenham and Leicester City are also marginally overachieving. However, Leicester fans will be keen for the Foxes to create more chances, as they have the lowest xG in the league with 2.6.
Chelsea and West Ham are among the biggest WSL underachievers
Chelsea might be top of the WSL, but they are in the bottom five when it comes to scoring goals relative to their xG. The Blues have scored 12 goals compared to their xG of 13.7.
Chelsea fans won’t care that they are underachieving in terms of goals, as long as they successfully defend their WSL title for the seventh year in succession.
While the number of goals scored compared to xG doesn’t faze Chelsea, it is a big reason behind West Ham’s struggles this season.
The Hammers have scored just two goals – a penalty and an own goal – which is 4.1 down on their xG of 6.1.
West Ham and Liverpool are on track for unwanted history after each failing to take a point so far this campaign.
Liverpool, who have only played five games, have scored two goals compared to an xG of 3.3. What this shows, though, is that West Ham, while failing to win matches, is creating good chances which could give them the edge over Liverpool.
The second-biggest underachievers in the WSL are Aston Villa, who have only scored four goals compared to their xG of 7.2.
London City Lionesses, while impressing in fifth, are also underachieving in terms of goals. The newly promoted side have scored seven goals compared to their xG of 9.2. Brighton, meanwhile, matches Chelsea with a -1.7 differential.
| Team | xG | Goals | Differential |
| Manchester United | 10.9 | 16 | 5.1 |
| Everton | 4.3 | 7 | 2.7 |
| Manchester City | 15.3 | 17 | 1.7 |
| Arsenal | 11.5 | 13 | 1.5 |
| Tottenham | 6.5 | 7 | 0.5 |
| Leicester City | 2.6 | 3 | 0.4 |
| Liverpool | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Chelsea | 13.7 | 12 | -1.7 |
| Brighton | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| London City Lionesses | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| Aston Villa | 7.2 | 4 | -3.2 |
| West Ham | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 |
Which WSL player is the biggest overachiever for goals compared to their xG?
Everton summer signing Ornella Vignola leads the list of biggest overachievers in the WSL when it comes to scoring goals relative to their xG.
Vignola, who joined the club from Granada, is joint-second in the scoring charts with four goals in six games. This included a hat-trick in her memorable debut against Liverpool.
She tops the list as her xG for the season so far is 0.8 – down 3.2 on the number of goals she has scored.
Jess Park, who joined Manchester United in a cross-city switch that saw Grace Clinton go to Manchester City, is second with her three goals compared to an xG of 0.7.
Cornelia Kapocs, Cathinka Tandberg and Melvine Malard round out the top five. Kapocs has scored both of Liverpool’s goals this season, while Tandberg’s high position is likely down to the 40-yard lob she scored against Everton.
Malard is the WSL top scorer with five goals, which compares to her xG of 3.6.
| Player | xG | Goals | Differential |
| Ornella Vignola (Everton) | 0.8 | 4 | 3.2 |
| Jess Park (Manchester United) | 0.7 | 3 | 2.3 |
| Cornelia Kapocs (Liverpool) | 0.4 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Cathinka Tandberg (Tottenham) | 1.5 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Melvine Malard (Manchester United) | 3.6 | 5 | 1.4 |
| Chloe Kelly (Arsenal) | 0.7 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Olivia Holdt (Tottenham) | 0.7 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Aoba Fujino (Manchester City) | 0.9 | 2 | 1.1 |
| Iman Beney (Manchester City) | 0.9 | 2 | 1.1 |
| Aggie Beever-Jones (Chelsea) | 3.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Khadija Shaw is among the biggest WSL underachievers this season
Manchester City striker Khadija Shaw is one of the best strikers in the WSL but she has underachieved when it comes to goals compared to her xG so far this season.
Shaw has scored four goals compared to her xG of 5.4. That -1.4 differential is the worst in the league, alongside Aston Villa’s Ebony Salmon (one goal) and Chelsea’s Catarina Macario (o goals).
Viviane Asseyi, Julia Zigiotti Olme and Michele Agyemang have also underachieved by a total of more than one.
Agyemang took to social media on Thursday morning to reveal that she has suffered a ruptured ACL, after she was taken off on a stretcher during England’s victory over Australia.
| Player | xG | Goals | Differential |
| Khadija Shaw (Manchester City) | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 |
| Ebony Salmon (Aston Villa) | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Catarina Macario (Chelsea) | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Viviane Asseyi (West Ham) | 2.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Julia Zigiotti Olme (Manchester United) | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Michele Agyemang (Brighton) | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Ffion Morgan (West Ham) | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Lotta Lindstrom (London City Lionesses) | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Nathalie Bjorn (Chelsea) | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Vivianne Miedema (Manchester City) | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
